This article is reproduced with authorization from the public account "Randiyuan", ID: chaintruth. It is not allowed to reprint without authorization.
Ran Finance (ID: chaintruth) original
Haidilao's market value is about to catch up with Baidu.
As of October 7, the total market value of Haidilao was 316.940 billion Hong Kong dollars, or approximately 40.9 billion US dollars. The total market value of Baidu is 43.5 billion US dollars.
Today's Baidu has fallen behind from "BAT" and its market value is much lower than "AT". "Li Yanhong has always believed that Baidu is undervalued." A person close to Baidu told Ran Caijing that Baidu's annual revenue in 2019 was 107.4 billion yuan, while Ali's annual revenue in fiscal year 2019 was 376.844 billion yuan, a difference of less than four times. But Ali's total market value now exceeds US$800 billion, a difference of nearly 20 times.
今天的百度已经落后于“ BAT”，其市场价值远低于“ AT”。 “李彦宏一直认为百度被低估了。”一位接近百度的人士告诉冉财经，百度2019年的年收入为1074亿元人民币，而阿里2019财年的年收入为3768.44亿元人民币，相差不到四倍。但是，阿里的总市值现在已经超过8000亿美元，相差近20倍。
As for Haidilao, revenue in 2019 was only 26.5 billion yuan, less than a quarter of Baidu's. This seems to be another proof that Baidu is undervalued.
Whether Baidu is undervalued or not is a matter of course, but since its listing, disputes over the high market value of Haidilao have continued. On September 26, 2018, Haidilao was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It rose by more than 10% at the opening, and its market value exceeded 100 billion at one time, but the closing price fell. In the next two years, Haidilao's share price rose step by step in the controversy.
Figure / Screenshot of Tiger Securities Ran Finance
图/ Tiger Securities Ran Finance的屏幕截图
From the opening of the first store in 1994, Haidilao has gone through 26 years. As of June 30, 2020, the number of Haidilao's global stores is 935. In 2017, Haidilao had a revenue of 10.6 billion yuan, and it was also the only Chinese restaurant company with a revenue of over 10 billion.
According to the financial report, Haidilao’s main income comes from restaurant operations. In 2019, the restaurant achieved a revenue of 25.889 billion yuan, accounting for 96.3% of the total revenue. To
However, the single main business risk has been highlighted this year. Affected by the epidemic, in the first half of this year, Haidilao achieved revenue of 9.761 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5% from 11.695 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year. The half-year net profit loss was 965 million yuan. The net profit for the same period of the year was 912 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 205.7%.
Haidilao believes that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the short-term closure of stores, reduced passenger flow, and increased staff and financial costs are the main reasons for the loss.
But in the opinion of Wang Donghao, a guest commentator on an international digital catering operation platform, Haidilao’s loss is not only due to the epidemic. The essence of business losses is the competition between revenue and cost. The problem of cost is easier to understand. The epidemic has been idle for such a long time, the waste of food inventory, rental expenses, the increase in logistics costs, and even the increase in the cost of food and raw materials. The pressure on his business is affected, which is why prices need to be increased after the epidemic. However, the problem of starting with service has also arisen. It is kidnapped by public opinion and the opinions of customers are too important. They dare not increase prices to offset the increase in costs. This is not in line with the normal market law. It also forces Haidilao to develop new products as soon as possible (easy to establish New price system) and increase product premiums. In addition, Haidilao has spared no effort in acquiring "HaoNoodle" and "Hanshe", and expanding and sinking brands "Lin Xiaoman" and "Eighteen Beng", which are also the reasons for the increase in costs.
但是，在国际数字餐饮运营平台的特邀评论员王东浩看来，海底捞的损失不仅是因为流行病。企业亏损的实质是收入与成本之间的竞争。成本问题更容易理解。这种流行病已经闲置了很长时间，浪费了粮食库存，租金支出，物流成本增加，甚至是食品和原材料成本增加。他的业务压力受到影响，这就是为什么在流行病之后需要提高价格的原因。但是，也出现了从服务开始的问题。它被公众舆论绑架，顾客的意见太重要了。他们不敢提价来抵消成本的增加。这与正常的市场法不符。这也迫使海底捞尽快开发新产品（易于建立新的价格体系）并提高产品保费。此外，海底捞不遗余力地收购了“ HaoNoodle”和“ Hanshe”，并扩大和下沉了“ Lin Xiaoman”和“ Eighteen Beng”品牌，这也是成本增加的原因。
On the evening of September 14, Haidilao Chairman Zhang Yong said in "Zhang Lei's Friends", "This year, I was injured the most. I was killed nine times. During the epidemic, the store was closed every day, and wages had to be paid, so the company had to pay. what."
In contrast, Baidu has achieved growth against the trend. The financial report shows that in the second quarter of 2020, Baidu achieved revenue of 26.03 billion yuan; operating profit was 5.6 billion yuan, an increase of 187% year-on-year; net profit was 5.08 billion yuan, an increase of 40% year-on-year.
Although Haidilao’s share price is still rising in the secondary market, the question of whether Haidilao is worth a Baidu is also lingering in the minds of investors.
In the view of foodie Dong Keping, Haidilao is not in the scope of his concern, because "I am more concerned about whether it is good or not, and what factors are behind it. Obviously, Haidilao is not in the category of delicious food."
Haidilao's service is what attracts ordinary consumers. When ordering, the waiter will remind you that if you have enough, don't order too much; if you wear glasses, the waiter will prepare glasses cloth for you; in addition, there are aprons, transparent sealed bags for mobile phones, and so on. It is reported that if it is a familiar customer, the waiter will also remember your consumption habits, including you like wearing slippers, or your hair is too long and needs to be tied up.
Double used to be a loyal fan of Haidilao. She liked to come to Haidilao whether it was for colleague gatherings, taking children to the restaurant, and even the old convention.
"It's not because of the taste of Haidilao that appeals to me, but Haidilao has different service strategies for each different group." Double told Ran Caijing that it was the first time to take children to Haidilao, except for waiting. They provide regular snacks when they are in a seat, and small toys when eating. Provide thicker cushions for children who don’t like to sit in baby dining chairs, offer to help bring the children, etc. "At the time, this service really made me feel like I went to a very professional parent-child restaurant."
On another occasion, Double had a dinner with his colleagues. The table opposite was celebrating his birthday. The waiter pushed the dining cart and brought a platter of cakes and fruits and sang birthday songs. The atmosphere was super nice. Double they joked, "Coincidentally, we also had a birthday today." Who would have thought that before long, the waiter really pushed the dining cart to Double and they brought them a fruit platter with birthday wishes.
But this was all two or three years ago. Although Haidilao’s service has not declined, such services are available in many restaurants. It is not uncommon, and Double feels that Haidilao is not necessary. "No matter how good the service is, it is difficult to continue to attract consumers by relying on service alone. After all, consumers enter the store to enjoy better food, and service can only be added value. Innovation and taste improvement are our job. ."
Haidilao's ultra-high rate of Taiwan reversion has always been an advantage that its peers cannot match. However, in the past two years, its rate of reversion has continued to decline. Relevant financial report data show that in 2018, the average turnover rate of Haidilao was 5.2 times a day. In 2019, it dropped to 4.8 times, the lowest in the past three years. In the first half of 2020, the average turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants was once again reduced to 3.3 times. In other words, Haidilao's popularity is not as good as before.
According to the "Analysis Report on the Market Outlook and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Hot Pot Chain Industry" report by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the market size of my country's hot pot industry has grown year by year, with an average annual compound growth rate of 11.34%. In 2019, the market size of the hot pot industry was nearly 529.5 billion yuan. The total number of hot pot restaurants has increased year by year. From 230,000 in 2013 to 300,000 in 2017, an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. It is preliminarily estimated to maintain a growth trend in 2019, with a total of nearly 350,000 hot pot restaurants.
Wang Donghao analyzed that among the 350,000 hot pot restaurants, it can be roughly divided into three categories, one is high-end private hot pot (with seafood, wagyu or fish maw as the core, focusing on quality, environment or customized services), one One is the popular hot pot of Internet celebrities (focusing on fashion, style, short and fast, focusing on traffic and Internet promotion), and the third is conventional hot pot. There is no significant advantage in the product itself, and there is no particular memorable place. Zhuang, Banu, Xiaolongkan and Haidilao are all in this category. Although these brands do not have significant advantages, they all have their own unique selling points, including Dezhuang's Dezhuang soup, Banu's fresh duck blood, Xiaolongkan's hot butter pot, and Haidilao's humanized service .
It is worth noting that Haidilao launched these services more than ten years ago. At that time, ordinary restaurants were not very particular about it. Therefore, Haidilao's services surprised consumers. In March 2011, a book "You Can't Learn Haidilao" not only brought Haidilao's service to the altar, but also made founder Zhang Yong a "famous teacher" among restaurant entrepreneurs. The "Haidilao-style service" pioneered by him has become a target for catering practitioners to emulate several times.
Banu Maodu Hot Pot, founded in 2001, was once one of Haidilao's many imitators. When Baru first entered Zhengzhou, due to difficult development, he tried to learn Haidilao's service-oriented approach. According to reports, the head of Banu, Du Zhongbing, mentioned in a sharing that at the beginning, Banu fully studied Haidilao's services, such as sending rubber bands, glasses cloth, and even dancing noodles. But later I found out that I couldn't learn it. According to a report by "Chinese Entrepreneur", "service is not the characteristic of Banu, but hairy tripe and mushroom soup are the ones." Du Zhongbing mentioned more than once that "productism is the foundation of the service industry."
Photo / microblog Banu Maodu hot pot
Recently, a piece of "plagiarism" news once again linked Haidilao and Banumaodu hot pot.
On September 15, an article issued in the name of a Haidilao fan stated that he had recently found "live soybean sprouts", hydrangea, hairy belly, fennel fritters, tender duck blood, etc. while dining at a Haidilao store in Zhengzhou. Several dishes are very similar to Banu Maodu hot pot. To
On September 17, Banu Maodu Hotpot responded that Haidilao is a respectable company that pioneered service doctrine and now focuses on launching products that customers love. Haidilao is very welcome to join the Banu product doctrine camp.
9月17日，Banu Maodu Hotpot回应说，海底捞是一家受人尊敬的公司，率先提出了服务原则，现在专注于推出客户喜爱的产品。非常欢迎海底捞加入Banu产品教义营。
Wang Donghao said that hot pot products are highly consistent and easy to imitate. In the industry, no one has applied for patents related to the appearance of dishes. That is to say, how to define and prove the originality of Banu dishes needs to be considered. Based on this, Haidilao is considered "plagiarism".
In fact, so far, Haidilao has not expressed its position on this matter.
Wang Donghao told Ran Finance and Economics that in recent years, the industry’s attitude towards Haidilao has also begun to change from “cannot learn” to “don’t learn”. The problem lies with Haidilao and the imitators.
For imitators, one is that they cannot learn. The establishment of the mechanism of mentorship assistance takes time, and the fast-paced hot pot market changes now do not allow new stores to do so, which can not afford it. When the team is trained, the golden cycle of hot pot brands has been missed. The second is the inability to learn. Human resources and other departments support this service model, which requires a lot of investment to maintain the satisfaction and happiness of employees. Without the scale of a group, it cannot be a climate and cannot afford to spend. To
But on the other hand, why not learn? For Haidilao, it is not easy to turn when the plate is too big, and the disadvantages of the product are becoming more and more obvious, but at the same time consumers are no longer satisfied with the service experience of Haidilao. As his core service, he has entangled a lot of energy and funds. Self-help requires a change, and requires a lot of effort to re-research and develop. The rapid pace but tight resources have also indirectly led to problems such as "plagiarism". .
但是，另一方面，为什么不学习呢？对于海底捞来说，当盘子太大时，转动起来并不容易，产品的弊端也越来越明显，但与此同时，消费者对海底捞的服务体验不再满意。作为他的核心服务，他纠缠了很多精力和资金。自助需要改变，并且需要大量的努力来重新研究和发展。快速但紧缩的资源也间接导致了诸如“ pla窃”之类的问题。 。
But in Dong Keping's view, Haidilao's ability to be so big and able to trigger so many topics is a model in itself. Learning is not only to see the strengths, but also to see its shortcomings, that is, experience and lessons. This is the attitude of learning. At present, Haidilao is still a giant that no one can surpass. It must be justified for others to do this. Therefore, Haidilao is always worth learning, even if it is to take precautions, you must study Haidilao seriously.
"Lin Xiaoman", "Qin Xiaoxian", "Fanfanlin", "Fulfilled with laughter", "Baobao Warmhouse"... In August this year, Haidilao's "Eighteen Beng" registered 5 trademarks in one go .
According to the information from Tianyan Check, Beijing Shibaben Catering Management Co., Ltd. completed its registration on September 29, 2019. It is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xinpai (Shanghai) Catering Management Co., Ltd., and Xinpai (Shanghai) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Haidilao. the company.
The operating status of these trademarks covers categories such as catering and accommodation, food, and convenience food.
Among them, two stores, "Fanfanlin" and "Qin Xiaoxian", have recently started trial operations in Beijing. After searching on the Beijing Dianping website, it was found that Fanfanlin and Qin Xiaoxian had been included as new restaurants, and were classified as fast food simple meals and desserts respectively.
Relevant staff from Haidilao informed Ran Caijing that while encouraging internal entrepreneurship, the company also focuses on the cultivation of diverse talents. The two brands of Fanfanlin and Qin Xiaoxian are entrepreneurial projects tried by internal employees and are still in the exploratory stage.
This is just the tip of Haidilao's expansion of sub-brands.
In recent years, Haidilao has built many sub-brands, in addition to Beijing’s “Eighteen Boil”, Chengdu’s “Lao Pai You Noodles”, Zhengzhou’s “Baifu Private Noodles” and Xi’an’s “Xinqin Pai Noodles "Wait.
According to "Beijing Business Daily", Haidilao's internal entrepreneurial drive to open new brands has many similarities with the previous practice in Xibei Noodle Village. From the original Xibei oatmeal noodles, to Maixiang Village, Super Roujia Mo, and Xibei Yogurt House, to Gongchangzhang, which has attracted much attention but has not yet opened, Xibei Noodle Village has never given up on the fast food field. .
In addition to building a sub-brand in the fast food field, Haidilao is also expanding its takeaway business. The financial report shows that in the first half of this year, the delivery business grew strongly, with revenue exceeding 400 million yuan, and its share of total revenue increased from 1.6% to 4.2%. According to Haidilao, the growth of its delivery business is mainly due to the increase in the number of takeout orders.
The reason why Haidilao has made many cross-border attempts in recent years is "for people." According to Zhang Yong’s “Zhang Lei Friends”, “I started my business because of my yearning for a better life. I wanted to have my own house when I got married, so I had a four-table hot pot restaurant. I feel very happy after working for tens or 100 yuan a month. Later I found out that you can make two hundred per night if you put a Mala Tang. This difference is really too big, and the house was quickly bought. But I fell into a strange circle because I bought a house, but the lobby manager or chef around me can’t buy it yet. In order for them to buy a house, I have to open another store and let him be the manager . But I didn’t expect to walk into this dead end this time, because there will always be people who can’t afford to buy a house, and only one manager of a shop can buy a house, so there is no way, I just keep opening the shop.”
The financial report shows that Haidilao's opening speed has not been affected by the epidemic, but has been faster. In the first half of this year, Haidilao opened 173 new restaurants, which is equivalent to an average of one new store opening every day. In 2019, Haidilao opened a total of 308 new stores, which is equivalent to opening a new store in 1.2 days on average.
On September 4, Haidilao announced that it will spend nearly 150 million yuan to acquire two major catering brands and many restaurants in China and New York.
According to the announcement, Sichuan Xinpai, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Haidilao, entered into a Hanshe agreement on September 4 to acquire an 80% stake in Shanghai Shuhai for RMB 120 million; Haidilao Singapore, a wholly-owned company, paid US$3.04 million (approximately RMB 20.76 million). Yuan) to acquire 80% of the issued and outstanding common shares of HN&T Holdings.
根据公告，海底捞的全资子公司四川新派于9月4日签订了汉社协议，以1.2亿元收购上海书海80％的股权；全资子公司新加坡海底捞支付了304万美元（约合2,076万元人民币）。元）收购HN＆T Holdings 80％的已发行和流通在外普通股。
It is reported that the acquisition of Shanghai Shuhai owns nine Chinese restaurants operated by Hanshe Chinese Cuisine in Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou, and HN&T Holdings is two restaurants in New York.
However, compared with companies such as Yihai Material, Shuhai Supply Chain, Weihai Consulting, and Haihai Technology, which have been spun off by Haidilao, Haidilao's multi-brand strategy has a mediocre effect, and its contribution to revenue is better than nothing.
Established in 2009, Shuhai initially provided back-end supply chain services such as food procurement and clean vegetable processing for Haidilao. In 2016, it began serving external customers. At present, the products sold by Shuhai cover the main Chinese food ingredients, and hot pot ingredients account for a very low proportion of external customer revenue. In 2018, Shuhai's revenue exceeded 3 billion yuan, and its valuation reached 2 billion US dollars. To
Yihai International was listed in Hong Kong as early as 2016, and its current market value is HK$129.9 billion.
Industry insiders believe that the multi-brand strategy is feasible during the company's booming period. According to Wang Xing, it means quick trial and error. However, once the company encounters a crisis, the sub-brand is also the first to be abandoned.
The recent practice of Coca-Cola is a warning. According to Fox News, in response to the new crown epidemic crisis, under the impetus of its business restructuring strategy, Coca-Cola plans to cut its wholly or partially owned global 500 brands by more than half.
According to the report, Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey said in a conference call with analysts that the carbonated beverage giant will eliminate other underperforming small brands globally, and pointed out that among its hundreds of brands More than half are single-country brands, with small or almost no scale. Zhan Kunjie believes that "we are not decisive enough to eliminate these small brands."
Baidu, on the other hand, found another growth point in addition to the core business of searching. The Q2 financial report showed that Baidu’s new AI business revenue achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, and its revenue accounted for close to 20% of Baidu’s total revenue, becoming a new growth engine.
The "serviceist" Haidilao is experiencing a situation that has to be changed, and this change has actually existed in Haidilao for a long time.
On October 28, 2018, Haidilao's first smart restaurant officially opened in Beijing. Recently, Ran Caijing visited this smart restaurant. During the non-peak dining period, you can find that there are still scattered guests who are dining, and new guests are constantly entering.
After a brief communication with the staff here, Ran Caijing found that smart restaurants are actually more of a gimmick, not much different from ordinary stores. Consumers who come to dine still use iPad to order food, smart robots deliver food, and the dishes are similar, and they need to communicate with waiters.
Therefore, in addition to the addition of a 3D naked-eye LED screen and a large screen surrounding the restaurant in the waiting area compared with the normal store, Ran Caijing did not experience too much "wisdom".
In fact, before the smart restaurant, Haidilao has also tried intelligence, such as allowing customers to order directly on the desktop, but due to the need to achieve through the top-level projection, it has not achieved fundamental innovation in technology.
Wang Donghao told Ran Caijing that after the epidemic, consumer spending power has polarized. On the one hand, high-end private hot pot continues to become popular, and the consumption level of users is less affected; on the other hand, the consumption level of a large number of groups In fact, it has declined. After the decline, the demand for the number of hot pot meals has also decreased. In the limited dining opportunities, Haidilao's service alone is not enough.
Consumers are more willing to consume value, this is the prosperity of productism. At the same time, young consumers, including student groups, are also migrating to the popular hot pot of Internet celebrities. After all, social networking needs more pictures that can be displayed and recordable, and services are only personal experiences, which are difficult to convey and cannot show superiority.
With the number of stores increasing year by year, Haidilao's problems have gradually emerged.
In 2017, "Viewing News" under the "Legal Evening News" published an undercover investigation article, detailing the dirty and mess of the back kitchens of Haidilao's Beijing Jinsong Store and Sun Palace Store, and even rats crawling into the food cabinet. Only three hours after the report was issued, Haidilao expressed its apologies in a very sincere manner and immediately gave corresponding measures.
This incident did not allow Haidilao to completely eliminate the most common but most taboo food safety problem in catering.
Looking at Haidilao’s official Weibo, its most recent letter of apology was on July 20th, and the content was about “there was an apology for the occurrence of plastic in the black chicken rolls ordered by customers at Haidilao’s Jinan Liancheng Plaza store”.
But this is not the only apology issued by Haidilao in July.
On July 14, just two days after the “hard plastic slices were eaten from black-bone chicken rolls” incident, a notice on unqualified food issued by the Hangzhou Municipal Supervision Bureau showed that a batch of chopsticks used in Haidilao’s Hangzhou Fuchun Xintiandi store detected large intestine Flora. Haidilao apologized again.
In "Zhang Lei's Friends", Zhang Yong said that if a company fails to go through the cycle, he must make two mistakes at the same time, one is greed and the other is stupid. Greedy and stupid. "If a company wants to go through the cycle, you can only make one mistake, you can be greedy, but you can't be stupid; if you are stupid, don't be greedy."
Obviously, Zhang Yong would not make such a mistake. But Haidilao still has a long way to go if it wants to reshape its glory and once again become the first choice of consumers for gatherings. This is the same situation as Baidu.
In 2011, Zhang Yong wrote on his Weibo, "It's hard to get a good reputation. This is the status quo of Haidilao." Many people commented below: Mr. Zhang is too humble.
Zhang Yong tried to convince the other party again: "I know which toe I have a headache."
And now, it seems that Zhang Yong's toes are very painful.
*The title map and some pictures are from Visual China, and the partial distribution map is from Weibo
*Disclaimer: In any case, the information or opinions expressed in this article do not constitute investment advice to anyone.